This week we have a user contributed Hand for analysis. Unfortunately we have no read on the villain as he sat down just a few hands prior. Let’s open up the discussion with these as starting points
- Will villain shove here enough with less than TPTK to make a call profitable?
- Did the villain seize upon the Hero’s flop call and took over as aggressor?
- General thoughts on hero’s line in this hand.
Please leave comments below!
>>>>>>>>>
$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
4 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
| Hero (CO) | ($9.84) | ||
| BTN | ($4.95) | ||
| SB | ($4.32) | ||
| BB | ($5.73) |
Pre-flop: ($0.07, 4 players) Hero is CO
Hero raises to $0.25, 1 fold, SB calls $0.23, BB calls $0.20
Flop: 
($0.75, 3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB calls $0.20
Turn: 
($1.35, 3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1, SB calls $1, BB folds
River: 
($3.35, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $2.87, Hero ??????
Gotta call, but I would fear the flush. SB didnt bet until the river, but called along, also possible that he was slow playing the flopped straight, but realistically, since he bet in the face of the flush, I would assume the flush.
A smart player would probaby say that Villian hit his flush..if he’s a chaser…or he might have KQ or something. As a dumb player, i would want to call just to see what he’s holding to see if he’s a chaser. So, I call.
If I was hero, I would have either folded or re-raised after the flop. The point of my re-raise would be to see where I stood. If the SB, smooth calls, I know I’m way behind and he flopped the straight or a set. If the BB re-raises all in, then I’m putting him on top pair or two pair.
By just calling the flop, I’m not getting any information and I’m giving too much away about my hand. At this point everyone knows I’m sitting on AK or AQ.
On the turn, the K is a scare card. The BB folds, which is what I would have expected but the SB smooth calling behind me AGAIN would set off all kinds of warning bells.
When the 2S comes on the river and SB pushes all in, it should confirm our suspicion that he flopped the straight. He is not scared of the flush because he has put us on AK all the way. SB has to lead off with a bet because he doesn’t want to take the chance that we’ll check it down after the third spade hits.
Sorry Hero. Unlikely you’ll lay it down at this point.
Well, if it wasn’t .02/.05 i’d be with BadBeatClothing on this…but…at this limit, I doubt villain flopped a str. My guess is he chased a flush the whole way down and caught, or has a pair and is trying to bluff the pot. I’ve found that generally players at this level are seldom sophisticated enough to A: slow play a str or B: put anyone on any hand, ak included. Another factor to work in: villain called a 5x raise preflop. That often doesn’t mean much in super low limits, and if hero has shown himself to be aggressive that doesn’t give us a lot of info. Since we don’t know the table images, I’m going to assume that villain has a small pair or a big flush draw preflop (any ace = call at .02/.05…source of lots of dough and lots of variance for us).
Having said all that the hero should probably call…it’s less than a pot sized bet, and he’s invested some already… Often the low limit players will bluff a scary river. I still put the villain on a flush (maybe a set), but I personally would call; he has another 5 bux if he loses. As BBC said, the mistake was on the flop…if you’re going to call with AK after u missed the flop, you’re screwing yourself. Raise or fold. Because of the smooth call the hero has no information as to the villains hand. Also, with 2 spades on board at the turn, if the hero thinks he’s ahead he should force the other guy there…put in over half his stack and he has to raise all in or fold, a call by villain would then be dumb because he has no fold equity on the river if a scare card comes. By the way…if I’m the villain and i did flop the straight, no way I’m just smooth calling 1 dollar on the turn…specially in low limit. I say he was drawing.
i should add, that another reason to re-raise on the flop is to take the hand down right there. when BB bets .20 into a .75 pot, it gives us a lot of information about his hand.
80 percent of the time when a player makes this type of bet INTO a pre-flop raiser, he’s just trying to feel the raiser out.
when you re-raise in this situation, 9 times out of 10, the guy who way underbet the pot, folds.
twitchy makes some very good points.
Agreed, ++ to twitchy67’s points.
Here is my analysis
Preflop: No complaints
Flop: Raise BB’s flop bet to about $1 or $1.20 as a C-Bet. Fold to a re-rase. Or fold altogether, I don’t know if I like the call. Hero already showed aggression PF, now you are min bet into on the flop.
Turn: I like Hero’s bet, maybe even make it pot sized. Original minbetter folded. Is SB now on the backdoor flush draw? Slowplaying, overplaying?
River: Backdoor flush gets there. If Hero has any reads on this guy as being a tight postflop player, then you can probably ditch TPTK. But he could be using his short stack to his advantage here. I probably make a crying call if I perceive him as donkish.
Here is some analysis using the free software pokerstove (I hope the formatting stays).
I plugged in a PF calling range of 20% for villain:
194 games 0.005 secs 38,800 games/sec
Board: 4s 7d 8h Ks 2s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.567% 84.02% 01.55% 163 3.00 { AhKc }
Hand 1: 14.433% 12.89% 01.55% 25 3.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
It has Hero at a 85.5% favorite against this range. Now, that doesn’t mean much since he is holding 2 specific cards and not a range! But I probably call here. My rule is to not go broke on one pair hands. Big hands for big pots, small hand for small pots. But in this case, I probably call.
I agree with Bad Beat Clothing’s response on the post flop strategy.
I just don’t see the villain chasing a flush. I am thinking 2 pair or even a straight.
A lot of very good points in there. I did forget to mention that a post flop raise would have been the right play, but since we can’t go back and change the bets, the goal is (as I understand it) decide to call or fold. I still think call, since you do have money invested, and because it is very possible he is trying to steal, but realistically I think he has back-doored a flush or has K-4 and caught his miracle card on the river.
Villain is in the SB. For a 5x raise I’m guessing he’s calling with something of a suited, connector or suited connected type hand (8,9 9T, J9) or a mid to low range pocket pair (33 – 88).
My instinct suggests to me that he doesn’t have the flush and is either trying to represent that he does or he’s hit his set and feels you haven’t hit a flush. I’m totally ok with Hero smooth calling the flop too but I’m not a big fan of AK, so I’d probably do the same. If I were hero, I’d also slow play a set to see if others caught even a little piece of anything that will get me paid.
I suspect hero is losing regardless. Call to confirm. Take your notes on the guy and move on.
Final guess on a hand 88.
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