We know Villain is a regular TAGG who was recently stacked when his KK ran up against KQ and his opp hit his 4 outer for a river straight. In the comments, let us know:
- What do you think Villain’s likely holding is at the river?
- What should Hero do knowing this?
- How would you have played differently?
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$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com
Stacks:
| UTG | ($9.25) | ||
| UTG+1 | ($28.50) | ||
| MP1 | ($25.40) | ||
| Villain (MP2) | ($17.15) | ||
| Hero (CO) | ($21.10) | ||
| BTN | ($22.60) | ||
| SB | ($22.60) | ||
| BB | ($16.55) |
Pre-flop: ($0.35, 8 players) Hero is CO with
3 folds, Villain calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, BTN calls $0.25, SB calls $0.15, BB checks
Flop: 
($1.25, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Villain bets $0.75, Hero calls $0.75, 1 fold, SB folds, BB folds
Turn: 
($2.75, 2 players)
Villain bets $0.75, Hero raises to $2, Villain raises to $3.50, Hero calls $1.50
River: 
($9.75, 2 players)
Villain bets $7.25, Hero ?????
Results of the hand have been posted here: Results: Playing Two Pair vs River Aggression
What up yo, Geno here,
I’ll take a stab. Geno here.(
don’t know how to put the cards, sorry bro)
I think by limping in while first into the pot from middle position (if I’m readin this thing right) reeks of a small pair, J 10 suited, not much else. By betting on the flop with 5 players to act behind him the villian tells me that he could possiiiibly have K Q, maybe a set of dueces or eights, or he is mayyyybe taking a stab with pocket 9’s at this point, but that is doubtful though with 5 behind. He has something decent, no question. There is no point in the hero raising for information on the flop because with absolutely no draws on board, a set or 2 pair could easily just call your raise and you have gained nothing…so a call is a good play on the flop. So it’s heads up and an Ace hits the turn. Now his small lead bet means one of 2 things….he’s scared of the Ace cause he has K Q and wants to still take a weeeeeak stab, or he has a set of dueces or eights. So the hero raises, for information, but when the villian raises back you know your beat. Your raise is a raise for information at that point and he responds by raising back a small amount…in my mind your done at this point, even for $1.50 more. The villain obviously can beat an Ace so you are actually drawing probably dead….even if you hit a miracle king for trips you’ll probably lose to a full house. So of course the sucker-card hits you, the damn 10. He leads out 7.25, showing know fear with a nice size bet, so your done…………you gotta fold. The 10 for 2-pair should not factor in at all. The only hand you can beat is if for some reason he had king-eight (unlikely). Lay it down. Looks like a set. Fight another day. Later.
~geno
Set of dueces; when he raises back on the turn your done…even for $1.50. A miracle king probalby fills him up so you just fold. Of course the sucker 10 hits, but that really shouldn’t impact anything. He has a set of dueces or eights, or he’s bluffing (doubtful he would bluff the whole way). Toss ‘em in.
~geno
I think hero should reraise all-in or fold.Truthfully, I’d lean towards folding here because there’s a str8 possibility and two pair can’t beat that.
Why don’t you put Villian on an A,Q at all?
Just curious.
Wait I meant a q,j…
If he is TAG I see know way of him bluffing on the river, unless he is upset over those kings still….but usually tight players tighten up even more after a bad beat, but they act really upset to set up a looser image. I could be wrong. For some reason Q J didn’t pop out that much at me when I first analyzed……def. possibility but I don’t know with this guy.
I hate everything about the way this hand was played. We never really know where we are at. I really don’t like the raise on the turn. Given the way it was played, I call on the river and hope not to see 888 or 222. The only hand I can see the villain having that we beat is KsQs.
I would have probably folded this hand preflop or raised if I was going to play it. I raise the flop. Given the way it’s played, dump this after the turn.
Maybe villain has A8s. His .75 bet could have been a feeler to see if someone hit the K for top pair. Now he puts you on Kx. The A hits. He continuation bets, but is afraid a bit of the flush draw. A diamond rivers, so he feels his 2 pair will hold (and he is right in this case). I think you or him would be very surprised to see either of you with QJ, but I guess this is a possibility one needs to consider.
I think a pocket pair of 88’s raises but a pair of deuces in late position may just call. The other hand I see him having is QsJs
Aside from that, if you raise on a card that beats your hand, please let me know where you’re playing when you come to Vegas.
I would definatley play the Reverse card here, i mean in this position, why not force the action counter-clockwise so that when it gets back around, you can play the Draw Two or Skip. Wait..what? Ooops wrong forum.
The villain’s re-raise after the turn gives a lot of info in my opinion.
I have a feeling he has A8 and unfortunately, he has you beat.
It’s time to fold!
If you put yourself in the villians shoes, he bets the flop, you call. He bets the turn, you raise, and he still re-raises you! When you raise on the turn, he has to consider that YOU have the set, so for him to re-raise the turn only .75 and fire on the river, he’s damn sure that he has you beat, with a set. I don’t think bluffing on the river would even cross my mind in this hand if I am the villain. The way the hero played the hand I feel there is no way this caliber of player would re-raise 1.50 on the turn with nothing. There is no way the hero will fold for 1.50 when the pot is around 7 bucks.
You guys see how it’s really difficult to analyze hands based on just the cards we see. The way I would play this hand if I was in could be completely different that I’m explaining here – I think I’m giving the villain a little too much credit thinking that he is this intuitive in a .10 .25 game, you know. Plus, I have no idea what kind of image the hero has, so that affects the villains state of mind in this hand. I tend to me more of a psychology player, my problem however is I assume players are thinking at a high level and I outhink myself, which could be the case here. Crazy game this thing called hold ‘em.
This is why I quit the game and now just have the website. I already gonna lose sleep when I see the answer to this question. Good time! When is the next TPT tourney!!!?!??!
Well, to be objective, I did not look at any of the 11 comments that were posted before me, so if I am repeating someone else, I apologize.
If you read my blog today, you know I always assume the worst, so my gut reaction is that villian would be holding something like JQ suited, possibly spades since he raised what could be a flush draw at the turn.
I think I likely would have shoved at his raise at the turn and hoped I was not up against a set.
It would seem that we need to define hero’s version of TAGG. In my world, A8 is Ace rag and I don’t play ace rag unless I’m short handed and there’s little to no action in front of me.
Lets say that we have Villain as about 20vpip/10pfr over the last 50 or so hands.
@pokervixen, thanks.
Let me rephrase. Over the past 50 hands we have seen that Villain has voluntarily put money into the pot in 20% of the hands. And he has raised 10% of those 50 hands.
Here is a representation of what a 20% playing range could look like:
22+
A7s+
K9s+
QTs+
J9s+
T9s
ATo+
KTo+
QTo+
JTo
I just don’t see how he could bet out the turn, get raised, and then re-raise 1.50 with only a straight draw, because if the hero just shoves after that raise he has to fold a draw. Plus leading the flop with 5 players behind after hitting nothing, just don’t see that happening with someone who has the word “tight” anywhere near his name! I actually really like this though, I miss talkin’ poker, oh no here comes my girl……..
“whatcha doin’ honey”
“oh, just workin’ on my site talkin’ poker. I actually feel alive for the first time in a long time”.
“What? How does that make me feel, that you feel alive for the first time in years talking ten-cent .quarter poker with 5 people you just met yesterday on the internet?”
“Sorry, see you around…it’s over”
So Thursday’s y’all? What time?
Later.
~geno
That opens up his range a bit. QJ is not a hand we have to worry about here. I do not see QJ ever leading the flop and going nuts on the turn with a 3 bet unless it’s QsJs.
I also don’t see too many opponents 3 betting the turn here without a minimum of 2 pair. Given his stats I would say 88 is a open raise for him. I’m starting to lean more towards 22, KsQs also sticks out here but I think we are behind.
One thing is that I like is the villains bet sizing. The turn is especially interesting. He leads weak and then 3 bets weak. Is he weak or squeezing you for value? The river bet is for value. It’s like he was hoping you hit the Ace and would raise.
Ok, I’m gonna add a bit. The “stats” given by the host are off. I am the villain in this situation. For those that know me, they know what my stats look like, but for those that don’t here they are. In the session that we are looking at I was playing 4 tables. Overall I had 50+ hands at that table. My VPIP was around 14% with a preflop raise of about 7%. I play a TAG game, but unlike most, I don’t raise with any pocket pair under JJ. The information the villain has on the Hero is this. He raises with any A around 3x the bb. He is aggressive with his hands when he feels he is best. He is willing to chase draws, but knows his odds of hitting and seems to use pot odds.
As I side note, after the hand I got told I made the S****ist play ever. He was pissed how FTP rewards S****y play.
@ffcowboy thanks for filling in the blanks!