Comments on: Playing Two Pair vs River Aggression

By: geoff

geoff — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 19:03:56 +0000

@ffcowboy thanks for filling in the blanks!

By: ffcowboy76

ffcowboy76 — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 19:01:26 +0000

Ok, I’m gonna add a bit. The “stats” given by the host are off. I am the villain in this situation. For those that know me, they know what my stats look like, but for those that don’t here they are. In the session that we are looking at I was playing 4 tables. Overall I had 50+ hands at that table. My VPIP was around 14% with a preflop raise of about 7%. I play a TAG game, but unlike most, I don’t raise with any pocket pair under JJ. The information the villain has on the Hero is this. He raises with any A around 3x the bb. He is aggressive with his hands when he feels he is best. He is willing to chase draws, but knows his odds of hitting and seems to use pot odds.

As I side note, after the hand I got told I made the S****ist play ever. He was pissed how FTP rewards S****y play.

By: Pipedream

Pipedream — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:47:09 +0000

That opens up his range a bit. QJ is not a hand we have to worry about here. I do not see QJ ever leading the flop and going nuts on the turn with a 3 bet unless it’s QsJs.

I also don’t see too many opponents 3 betting the turn here without a minimum of 2 pair. Given his stats I would say 88 is a open raise for him. I’m starting to lean more towards 22, KsQs also sticks out here but I think we are behind.

One thing is that I like is the villains bet sizing. The turn is especially interesting. He leads weak and then 3 bets weak. Is he weak or squeezing you for value? The river bet is for value. It’s like he was hoping you hit the Ace and would raise.

By: "geno"

"geno" — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:46:44 +0000

I just don’t see how he could bet out the turn, get raised, and then re-raise 1.50 with only a straight draw, because if the hero just shoves after that raise he has to fold a draw. Plus leading the flop with 5 players behind after hitting nothing, just don’t see that happening with someone who has the word “tight” anywhere near his name! I actually really like this though, I miss talkin’ poker, oh no here comes my girl……..

“whatcha doin’ honey”

“oh, just workin’ on my site talkin’ poker. I actually feel alive for the first time in a long time”.

“What? How does that make me feel, that you feel alive for the first time in years talking ten-cent .quarter poker with 5 people you just met yesterday on the internet?”

“Sorry, see you around…it’s over”

So Thursday’s y’all? What time?

Later.

~geno

By: geoff

geoff — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:32:47 +0000

@pokervixen, thanks.

Let me rephrase. Over the past 50 hands we have seen that Villain has voluntarily put money into the pot in 20% of the hands. And he has raised 10% of those 50 hands.

Here is a representation of what a 20% playing range could look like:

22+
A7s+
K9s+
QTs+
J9s+
T9s
ATo+
KTo+
QTo+
JTo

By: geoff

geoff — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:24:46 +0000

Lets say that we have Villain as about 20vpip/10pfr over the last 50 or so hands.

By: Poker Vixen

Poker Vixen — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:22:42 +0000

It would seem that we need to define hero’s version of TAGG. In my world, A8 is Ace rag and I don’t play ace rag unless I’m short handed and there’s little to no action in front of me.

By: NickRedford

NickRedford — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:21:06 +0000

Well, to be objective, I did not look at any of the 11 comments that were posted before me, so if I am repeating someone else, I apologize.

If you read my blog today, you know I always assume the worst, so my gut reaction is that villian would be holding something like JQ suited, possibly spades since he raised what could be a flush draw at the turn.

I think I likely would have shoved at his raise at the turn and hoped I was not up against a set.

By: "geno"

"geno" — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:15:53 +0000

If you put yourself in the villians shoes, he bets the flop, you call. He bets the turn, you raise, and he still re-raises you! When you raise on the turn, he has to consider that YOU have the set, so for him to re-raise the turn only .75 and fire on the river, he’s damn sure that he has you beat, with a set. I don’t think bluffing on the river would even cross my mind in this hand if I am the villain. The way the hero played the hand I feel there is no way this caliber of player would re-raise 1.50 on the turn with nothing. There is no way the hero will fold for 1.50 when the pot is around 7 bucks.

You guys see how it’s really difficult to analyze hands based on just the cards we see. The way I would play this hand if I was in could be completely different that I’m explaining here – I think I’m giving the villain a little too much credit thinking that he is this intuitive in a .10 .25 game, you know. Plus, I have no idea what kind of image the hero has, so that affects the villains state of mind in this hand. I tend to me more of a psychology player, my problem however is I assume players are thinking at a high level and I outhink myself, which could be the case here. Crazy game this thing called hold ‘em.

This is why I quit the game and now just have the website. I already gonna lose sleep when I see the answer to this question. Good time! When is the next TPT tourney!!!?!??!

By: PokerPlasm

PokerPlasm — Fri, 30 Jan 2009 18:15:36 +0000

The villain’s re-raise after the turn gives a lot of info in my opinion.

I have a feeling he has A8 and unfortunately, he has you beat.

It’s time to fold!